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The contributions collected in this book have been written by well-known statisticians to acknowledge Ludwig Fahrmeir's far-reaching impact on Statistics as a science, while celebrating his 65th birthday. The contributions cover broad areas of contemporary statistical model building, including semiparametric and geoadditive regression, Bayesian inference in complex regression models, time series modelling, statistical regularization, graphical models and stochastic volatility models.
Seasonal fluctuations in mortality are a persistent phenomenon across populations. In Western countries of the Northern hemisphere, mortality is typically larger in winter than in summer which is attributed to the detrimental effects of cold to health. This does, however, not explain why in colder countries the differences between winter and summer mortality are smaller than in countries with warm or moderate climate. This book, therefore, investigates whether sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors play a role as important for seasonal mortality as they do for mortality in general. Using modern statistical methods, the book shows, for example for the United States, that the fluctuations between winter and summer mortality are smaller the more years someone has spent in school.
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What is the value of diplomacy? How does it affect the course of foreign affairs independent of the distribution of power and foreign policy interests? Theories of international relations too often implicitly reduce the dynamics and outcomes of diplomacy to structural factors rather than the subtle qualities of negotiation. If diplomacy is an independent effect on the conduct of world politics, it has to add value, and we have to be able to show what that value is. In Diplomacy’s Value, Brian C. Rathbun sets forth a comprehensive theory of diplomacy, based on his understanding that political leaders have distinct diplomatic styles: coercive bargaining, reasoned dialogue, and pragmatic stat...