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On 18-19 June 2004, the BIS held a conference on 'Understanding Low Inflation and Deflation'. This event brought together central bankers, academics and market practitioners to exchange views on this issue (see the conference programme in this document). This paper was presented at the workshop. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not those of the BIS.
Is the fall in overall productivity growth in the United States and other developed countries related to the rising share of the service sectors in the economy? Since services represent well over half of the U.S. gross national product, it is also important to ask whether these sectors have had a slow rate of growth, as this would act as a major drag on the productivity growth of the overall economy and on its competitive performance. In this timely volume, leading experts from government and academia argue that faulty statistics have prevented a clear understanding of these issues.
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This paper examines the impact of deflation on fiscal aggregates. With deflation relatively rare in modern history, it relies mostly on the historical records, using a dataset panel covering 150 years and 21 advanced economies. Empirical evidence shows that deflation affects public finances mostly through increases in public debt ratios, reflecting a worsening in interest rate–growth differentials. On average, a mild rate of deflation increases public debt ratios by almost 2 percent of GDP a year, this impact being larger during recessionary deflations. Using a simulation model that accounts for composition effects and price expectations, we also find that, for European countries, a 2 percentage point deflationary shock in both 2015 and 2016 would lead to a deterioration in the primary balance of as much as 1 percent of GDP by 2019.
This timely and authoritative set explores three centuries of good times and hard times in major economies throughout the world. More than 400 signed articles cover events from Tulipmania during the 1630s to the U.S. federal stimulus package of 2009, and introduce readers to underlying concepts, recurring themes, major institutions, and notable figures. Written in a clear, accessible style, "Booms and Busts" provides vital insight and perspective for students, teachers, librarians, and the general public - anyone interested in understanding the historical precedents, causes, and effects of the global economic crisis. Special features include a chronology of major booms and busts through history, a glossary of economic terms, a guide to further research, an appendix of primary documents, a topic finder, and a comprehensive index. It features 1,050 pages; three volumes; 8-1/2" X 11"; topic finder; photos; chronology; glossary; primary documents; bibliography; and, index.