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Understanding Interdependence
Drawing together new papers by some of today's leading figures in international economics and finance, Understanding Interdependence surveys the current state of knowledge on the international monetary system and, by implication, defines the research horizon for the future. Covering topics including the behavior of exchange rates, the choice of exchange-rate regime, current-account adjustment in classical and Keynesian models, the extent and effects of capital mobility, international debt, the stabilization and reform of the formerly planned economies, European monetary union, and international policy coordination, the book underscores the importance of these subjects and identifies lessons for policymakers. The contributors to the volume are Michael Bruno, Ralph C. Bryant, Richard N. Cooper, Michael P. Dooley, Barry Eichengreen, Stanley Fischer, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Peter Hooper, Peter B. Kenen, Paul R. Krugman, Henri Lorie, Jaime Marquez, Ronald I. McKinnon, Michael Mussa, Maurice Obstfeld, John Odling-Smee, Assaf Razin, Dani Rodrik, Mark P. Taylor, and John Williamson.
Debt Reduction and Economic Activity
This paper focuses on principles and various aspects of debt reduction and economic activity. The paper analyzes the effect of debt and debt-service reduction on the contractual and market values of a country's debt and also describes the IMF staff's preliminary attempts to describe and quantify the macroeconomic effects of debt and debt-service reduction. The method by which the buyback is financed is critical in determining how much debt reduction takes place, or, alternatively put, how much the price of debt rises. It is assumed in this paper that individual creditors are free to retain their existing claims and that these cannot be subordinated to new claims. It should be recognized at the outset that the approach used is but one of several possibilities. It should also be emphasized that the discussion is preliminary and that results will need to be reassessed as less restrictive assumptions are employed and as our understanding of the important economic relationships involved improves.
IMF Staff papers
An intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy is used to analyze how terms of trade changes affect real exchange rates and the trade balance. Temporary current, (expected) future, and permanent changes in the terms of trade are considered. The results suggest that the relationship between the terms of trade and the current account (the so-called Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect) is sensitive to whether the model incorporates nontradable goods. Thus, the real exchange rate may be an important variable through which terms of trade shocks are transmitted to the current account.
International Debt Reexamined
The international debt crisis that erupted in 1982 threatened the world financial system and turned the 1980s into a lost decade for Latin America. But the crisis jolted governments throughout the region into adopting sweeping economic reforms. By the early 1990s inflation was lower, growth was reviving, the major debtors had reached "Brady Plan" workout agreements reducing bank debt in exchange for collateral, and capital was entering the region in unprecedented magnitudes. This study tries to make sense of this historic financial episode and to derive lessons for future policy. Cline first returns to his 1983 projection models that figured importantly in the debate at that time, and reruns...
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