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The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia
Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.
Long-Run Growth Forecasting
This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.
Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in Developing Countries
Four stylised facts of aggregate economic growth are set up initially. The growth process is interpreted to represent transitional dynamics rather than balanced-growth equilibria. Against this background, the fundamental importance of subsistence consumption is comprehensively analysed. Subsequently, the meaning of the productive-consumption hypothesis for the intertemporal consumption trade-off and the growth process is investigated. Finally, the process of growth is analysed empirically by means of cross-sectional conditional convergence regressions with endogenous control variables.
Long-Term Projections of Asian GDP and Trade
Long-term growth in the region depends largely on supply-side factors, augmented by each economy's productive capacity. Such growth reflects the combined effects of production factors, such as capital and labor, as well as productivity improvements---not on the short-term business cycle. This distinction matters, as policies for sustaining growth are different from policies for minimizing cyclical fluctuations. This report details the key findings of the Asian Development Bank's project on Long-Term Projections of Asian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Trade.
The Knowledge Capital of Nations
A rigorous, pathbreaking analysis demonstrating that a country's prosperity is directly related in the long run to the skills of its population. In this book Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann make a simple, central claim, developed with rigorous theoretical and empirical support: knowledge is the key to a country's development. Of course, every country acknowledges the importance of developing human capital, but Hanushek and Woessmann argue that message has become distorted, with politicians and researchers concentrating not on valued skills but on proxies for them. The common focus is on school attainment, although time in school provides a very misleading picture of how skills enter into ...
Latin American Economic Development
Latin America is one of the most interesting parts of the world. The region’s illustrious history, culture, and geography are famous internationally, but in terms of economics, Latin America has been generally associated with problems. For many, the combination of a resource rich region and poor economic conditions has been a puzzle. Latin American Economic Development provides the most up to date exploration of how this happened with a focus on why the continent can be considered to have underperformed, how the various Latin American economies function and the future prospects for the region. This textbook addresses the economic problems of Latin America theme by theme. The first four cen...
