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Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward. Using innovative approaches, the paper finds that in FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies. FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture. At the same time, climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict. Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks and to build climate resilience over time. Sizeable and sustained international support—especially grants, concessional financing and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worse outcomes, including forced displacement and migration. The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through carefully tailored policy advice, financing, and capacity development.
Climate and Cross-Border Migration
Our work is positioned at the intersection of migration and climate change—two key forces shaping the economic outlook of many countries. The analysis explores: (i) the relative importance of origincountry vs destination-country factors in explaining migration patterns; (ii) importance of climate disasters as driver of cross-border migration; and (iii) the importance of climate-driven migration on the overall impact of climate on macroeconomic outcomes. It arrives at the following main findings. First, both origin-country and destination-country contribute to explaining migration outflows from EMDEs, although only the global shocks seem important for advanced economies. Second, climate dis...
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Afric...
Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change
Adaptation to climate change is an integral part of sustainable development and a necessity for advanced and developing economies alike. How can adaptation be planned for and mainstreamed into fiscal policy? Setting up inclusive coordination mechanisms and strengthening legal foundations to incorporate climate change can be a prerequisite. This Note identifies four building blocks: 1. Taking stock of present and future climate risks, identifying knowledge and capacity gaps, and establishing guidance for next steps. 2. Developing adaptation solutions. This block can be guided by extending the IMF three-pillar disaster resilience strategy to address changes in both extreme and average weather ...
Climate Change Effects on Civil Infrastructure
The design, analysis, maintenance, operations, economics, and life cycle of civil infrastructure is very dependent upon climatic effects. Climate change can have immense effects on the performance and well-being of civil infrastructures, and this book examines how climate change can directly affect civil infrastructure, how different types of infrastructure are affected, and more importantly, how stakeholders can prepare for and counter such changes and approach decision-making in an optimal manner. It includes numerous case studies and examples that help illustrate the different points and methodologies presented. Presents a comprehensive road map on how to plan for and address climate change effects on civil infrastructure. Includes case studies and examples that help illustrate the different points and methodologies presented. Presents numerous theoretical and analytical tools to establish potential impacts. Examines the changes in demands, increased vulnerabilities (or capacity decrease), consequences, and potential links between all of those factors.
Перспективы развития региональной экономики, ближний восток и центральная азия, Окт 2023
Совокупное воздействие глобальных неблагоприятных факторов, внутренних проблем и геополитических рисков в странах Ближнего Востока и Центральной Азии сдерживает темпы экономического роста, а перспективы крайне неопределенны. Экономический рост в регионе Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки, по прогнозам, в этом году замедлится, что обусловлено снижением добычи нефти, жесткими...
Feeling the Heat: Adapting to Climate Change in the Middle East and Central Asia
Climate change is among humanity’s greatest challenges, and the Middle East and Central Asia region is on the frontlines of its human, economic, and physical ramifications. Much of the region is located in already difficult climate zones, where global warming exacerbates desertification, water stress, and rising sea levels. This trend entails fundamental economic disruptions, endangers food security, and undermines public health, with ripple effects on poverty and inequality, displacement, and conflict. Considering the risks posed by climate change, the central message of this departmental paper is that adapting to climate change by boosting resilience to climate stresses and disasters is a critical priority for the region’s economies.
Al-Mukhtārāt
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