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Understanding Economic Forecasts
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis
This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series, bridging the gap between methods and realistic applications. It presents the most important approaches to the analysis of time series, which may be stationary or nonstationary. Modelling and forecasting univariate time series is the starting point. For multiple stationary time series, Granger causality tests and vector autogressive models are presented. As the modelling of nonstationary uni- or multivariate time series is most important for real applied work, unit root and cointegration analysis as well as vector error correction models are a central topic. Tools for analysing nonstationary data are then transferred to the panel framework. Modelling the (multivariate) volatility of financial time series with autogressive conditional heteroskedastic models is also treated.
The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling
Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene. Thi...
Testing Exogeneity
This book discusses the nature of exogeneity - a central concept in econometrics - and shows how to test for it through numerous substantive empirical examples. Part I considers what exogeneity is and how it can be tested. Part II contains applications to models of expenditure, money demand, inflation, wages and prices, and exchange rates across both developed and developing countries. Part III extends various tests of constancy and forecast accuracy, which are central to testing super exogeneity. The papers forming the core of this book (from two special issues of the Journal of Policy Modeling) provide a unique and unified perspective on applied econometric modelling in general and on exogeneity tests in particular. The applications are substantive and diverse, with a broad appeal to the applied economist.Contributors: H. Ahumada, G. Bardsen, J. Campos, M. Deutsch, R. F. Engle, Neil R. Ericsson, C. W. J. Granger, B. E. Hansen, David F. Hendry, J. Hunter, S. Johansen, K. Juselius, R. Numoen, Jean-Francois Richard
A Celebration of Statistics
The International Statistical Institute was founded in 1885 and is therefore one of the world's oldest international scientific societies. The field of statistics is still expanding rapidly and possesses a rich variety of applications in many areas of human activity such as science, government, business, industry, and everyday affairs. In consequence, the celebration of the Institute's centenary in 1985 is of considerable interest not only to statisticians but also more widely to the international scientific community. As part of its centennial celebration planning the Institute decided to publish a volume of papers representing the immensely wide range of interests encompassed by statistics...
The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting
This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.
A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia
This Open Access Brief presents the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). KGEMM is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The model has eight blocks (real sector, fiscal, monetary, external sector, price, labor and wages, energy, population, and age cohorts) that interact with each other to represent the Kingdom’s macroeconomy and energy linkages. It captures New Keynesian demand-side features anchored to medium-run equilibrium and long-run aggregate supply. It applies a cointegration and equilibrium correction modeling (ECM) methodology to time series data to estimat...
